"The Democrats may or may not score real breakthroughs in the houses of Congress in 2006 . . . but it's undeniable that they have opportunities galore in the governorships this year," writes Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Opportunity is not reality, though, and on prior occasions the Democrats have fumbled away some key contests, as Shakespeare once penned, "in the twinkling of an eye." Yet at the starting gate, Democrats appear headed for control of a narrow majority of the statehouses, and it will be a setback for their 2008 presidential plans if they don't get there.

Recap: The Republicans hold 28 governorships, and the Democrats 22. Of the 36 governorships up in 2006, the GOP possesses 22 and the Democrats just 14, giving the GOP far more territory to defend. Furthermore, eight Republican governors are not running again, either voluntarily or because of term limits, while only one Democrat (Tom Vilsack of Iowa) is stepping down. As is always the case, much of the party change in state houses comes in the open seat races with no incumbent.
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Toss-Ups

Alabama - What a spectacle. Governor Bob Riley (R), who barely beat incumbent Democratic Gov. Don Seigelman in 2002, tried to raise taxes and isn't conservative enough for some Republicans, who may back ousted Suprem e Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (of "Ten Commandments" fame--not the movie, the monument). Meanwhile Gov. Siegelman wants his old job back, but he's gotten himself indicted in a cash-for-appointment scandal, which may give the Democratic nod to Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, whose slogan is the wholesome, "I Love Lucy." We'll give a fingernail's edge to Riley, but he'd better review the Indiana Jones films so he can learn to dodge multiple bullets, arrows and boulders with the best of them.

So, in sum, the Democrats have a better than 50-50 shot in 2006 to gain the four statehouses they need for a gubernatorial majority. The margin for error is such that they may gain just a couple governors, or they could go several seats beyond the minimal majority.