The theory in question is known as the "spiral of silence" theory, a term coined by German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann.

While some critics think the Wikipedia online encyclopedia explanation of this is oversimplified to the point of being misleading, it should at least give you a quick, basic rundown on what it's supposed to be about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiral_of_silence

Now there is no way I'm ever going to get my redneck friends to read all of this, so let me give the quick summary and then go into more detail later.

The theory asserts that a person is less likely to voice an opinion on a topic if he or she feels it is a minority or unpopular opinion. It is a basic human instinct to feel fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority, unless you are a critic - like me : )

Perhaps that is the skeptical journalist in me, or maybe it comes from my Cherokee genes.

But I have found that it is true of most people. There are times when that can simply lead to a minor, local misunderstanding or unnecessary drama. And then there are times in history when it can result in major national and even global catastrophes.

Let's take the case of public opinion on George W. Bush.

If you look at the polls, 71 percent of Americans do not approve of the job he is doing, and that includes a lot of Republicans and independents as well as Democrats.

But you would be hard pressed to find one of Bush's voters in Alabama who has changed their minds one iota. Many of them have now tuned out political news, and can write off all the criticism by just relying on the old saw, "Well, all politicians lie."

This is a form of the spiral of silence, which according to the research, begins with fear of reprisal or isolation and escalates from there. Individuals use what is described as "an innate ability" or quasi-statistical sense to gauge public opinion.

And the media is critical to the process.

The media plays a large part in determining what the dominant opinion is at any given time, since the ability of people to directly observe events and actors in those events is extremely limited.

The media has such an enormous impact on how public opinion is portrayed, and can dramatically impact an individual's perception about where public opinion lies - whether or not that portrayal is factual or "fair and balanced."

For my academic readers, you can forget "agenda setting" and "framing" research. They both seem quaintly designed to minimize the impact of the media on public opinion for the purposes of mega-media owners.

Noelle-Neumann describes the spiral of silence as a changing process, in which predictions about public opinion become fact as the media's coverage of the majority opinion becomes the status quo and the minority becomes less likely to speak out. The theory is said to apply only to moral issues, though, not issues that can be proven right or wrong using facts.

But I am not so sure that is true.

This may come as something of a shock to people who live in New York and other diverse cities around the country or the world, but while the Civil Rights movement and the media coverage of it has largely removed public racism for the most part, it still lives deep down in the souls of those who are still largely isolated from exposure to different kinds of people and alternative media outlets.

Maybe racism is a moral issue, although it would seem there are enough scientific facts out there, as well as role models, to prove wrong the idea that one race of people are innately smarter than any other simply because of the color of their skin.

According to the Wikipedia analysis, it is claimed that perhaps clever politicians could use knowledge of this theory to keep civil order, although "attempts to employ it knowingly are essentially methods of manipulation and coercion."

The example it uses is the "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays in the military, which allows gays to serve and is supposed to protect them, although it punishes them if they are exposed.

The compliant majority is a necessary factor for stability of society, in the case of the rule of law especially, and religion plays a role here. Those who are willing to proclaim a minority opinion are absolutely necessary in a democratic society especially, however, for the evolution of society to progress in a positive way.

While the spiral of silence theory is thought to be inspired by Nazi Germany, that was not the subject of the first research done to test the theory. For that, Ms. Noelle-Neumann turned to public attitudes about smoking.

But just for the sake of argument, let's take Nazi Germany in the 1930s and the United States today.

The German people sat by and allowed Adolph Hitler to come to power with his insane notion of world domination. And many of them did this quietly knowing that his crazy racist rants about a superior German people were stupid and wrong.

I think it is safe to conclude that the American people have done the same thing now under Bush. The mainstream media and some bloggers might call this a conspiracy theory, and say that Bush is not even on the same playing field or as bad a dictator as Hitler. And maybe if you live on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, or far from the action in San Francisco or even Birmingham, Alabama, it might appear to be a fantasy.

There are no gas chambers for Jews here, although there are those secret CIA prisons we can only assume are still engaged in torture.

Bush doesn't wave his arms around wildly when he talks and proclaim the ultimate superiority of the Anglo-Saxon race, although he does tend to say over and over again that "America is the greatest country in the world" with the most freedom. Experts on freedom and human rights will tell you if you listen that there is very little truth in that statement.

America is now largely a police state, unless you are among the super rich - and vote Republican.

While no one in the media has the guts to report this, it is obvious to those of us who keep up with these things that the Neocons who pull Bush's strings have just as evil a design for world domination as Hitler did. Only now they do their dirty scheming all dressed up with their nice little haircuts in corporate boardrooms, not SS uniforms, and they deliver all of our eulogies in the form of advertising for processed food products that are as guaranteed to kill us as the gas chamber - only it is a much slower death and hidden behind marketing slogans guaranteed to appeal to kids.

We are much smarter now in many ways than the people of Germany in the 1930s, and in some ways, we are even dumber.

At least down here in Alabamaland, there was a time when you could get people so mad that they would take up a musket and charge against the ramparts of power, even against overwhelming odds.

Now you can't get people to stop driving their SUVs long enough to protest the outrageous price of gas, much less to save the planet.

And into this vacuum steps a political genius like Karl Rove, who knows how to get his candidate, Bush, to whip up just enough fear of gay people and of foreign "terrorists" and "activist judges" to convince people to sit back and let this war in Iraq drag on and on, even though all the experts say the situation is untenable and is not going to get any better - no matter how much the White House likes to talk about "giving the surge a chance."

Al Gore can go all over the country talking about the need to do something about global warming and our dependence on oil from the Middle East. But in one statement from the Rose Garden, Bush can wipe that concern away by saying "there is no such thing" as global warming, and by one more press release from the Homeland Security Department saying al-Qaeda is still out there wanting to "kills us" because we are Americans.

All the science in the world can point to alternative facts about the world. But facts do no good when all people see on Fox News and their local Newhouse newspaper is that Bush says "What, me worry?"

Y'all just keep on shopping and let me worry about running the world, he says with a smirk and a chuckle.

And people spiral into silence and go about their blissfully ignorant, merry way.

Even Gore admits it takes a crisis to get people's attention and change their minds and their behavior. But what he may not realize is that is takes a "real" crisis, even bigger than 9/11 or Katrina.

I wish I could say it were not so, Joe, but I'm afraid it's true.

That will not stop me from voicing a minority opinion in Alabama, even though it may be a majority opinion nationwide, since we are close to getting a majority of people onboard with the idea that Bush should be impeached for his high crimes and misdemeanors and removed from office.

Perhaps if we just keep pouring the wine into the vessel, in dribs and drabs and entire carafes full at a time, enough people will finally drink. And then we can get on with eating, living and being merry. We could get on with pursuing real happiness instead of simply acquiescing to a mediocre acceptance of something far less.